“Those who do not learn from history are doomed to repeat it.” ~ George Santayana Read Full Story
Category Archives: Pearl Harbor
December 12, 2017—Tactical or Strategic Warning?
“It is much easier after the event to sort the relevant from the irrelevant signals. After the event, of course, a signal is always crystal clear; we can now see what disaster it was signaling, since the disaster has occurred. But before the event it is obscure and pregnant with conflicting meanings… It is only human to want some unique and univocal signal, to want a guarantee from intelligence… We have to accept the fact of uncertainty and learn to live with it. No magic, in code or otherwise, will provide certainty. Our plans must work without it.” ~Roberta Wohlstetter, Policy Analyst and Historian in Pearl Harbor: Warning and Decision, 1962 Read Full Story
December 6, 2016—Lessons to Avoid Another Day that Will Live in Infamy.
The United States has always responded to major threats, but usually after the danger is obvious essentially to all—often after a rude awakening like at Pearl Harbor in the dawn’s early light 75 years ago tomorrow. Still, even that threat was foreseen and clearly identified by Billy Mitchell and others, but America’s leaders ignored, some even ridiculed, that warning—though others began important advance preparations for the war that was to come. In those years, oceans separated our country from those who sought to do us harm and technology was such that time was permitted for preparations and response. Read Full Story
December 8, 2015—Maybe a Gray Swan?
Yesterday was the 74th anniversary of the Japanese surprise attack on Pearl Harbor, a classic “Black Swan” event in that it was unexpected but should have been, as concluded after the fact. Two years ago, I suggested we were courting another “surprise” attack that should be identified now and countered while there may still be time to prevent or defend against it. Two years have passed, the threat has grown and we seem to be beginning to address it—so, a “Gray” Swan? Will we respond in time? Read Full Story
December 8, 2014— “A Date That Will Live In Infamy!”
“Global critical infrastructure organizations need to take this threat seriously. The Iranian adversary is real and they’re coming, if not already here.” ~ Mark Weatherford, Former Deputy Under Secretary of Homeland Security Read Full Story
December 11, 2013—Coming Soon: An EMP “Black Swan” Event?
The Japanese surprise attack on Pearl Harbor 72 years ago was a classic “Black Swan” event in that it was unexpected but should have been, as concluded after the fact. A fair question is whether we are courting another “surprise” attack that should be identified now and countered while there is still time to prevent or defend against it? Read Full Story
Key Policy Briefs
We will be adding key policy briefs as we progress.