March 12, 2019—Lake Wylie Pilot Study Next Steps

Our Lake Wylie Pilot Study has matured to the point of taking next steps beyond Rock Hill and York County, especially in South Carolina and as soon as possible into North Carolina. And our pattern can be extended to additional states.

I’ve written about our Lake Wylie Pilot Study repeatedly since 2014. For the most comprehensive summary reports: click here for my December 18, 2018 message that laid out in detail the origins of our effort; and click here for my January 15, 2019 message that updated it with a focus on exporting the lessons learned beyond South Carolina, including specifically the possibility of joining forces with our colleagues in Texas.

When Texas State Senator Bob Hall and I both were USAF officers in the 1960s, we worked to harden the Minuteman system against nuclear weapons effects, including electromagnetic pulse (EMP) effects. Thus, Bob well understands the nature of the threat and what is needed to harden against it. He is trying for the third time in the Texas Legislature to persuade his colleagues to take steps to harden the Texas grid — and the Texas legislature only meets every other year.

Others have been trying — and are trying — in other states to persuade their state legislatures to deal with the existential EMP threat for at least six years, regrettably with limited success. For example, click here for a discussion of the first to gain limited success by then Maine Democrat Representative Andrea Bolen (D-Sanford).

I among a number of others traveled to Maine to testify before the Maine legislature to help Andrea with her important initiative that gained limited support — but her impressive bipartisan 2013 efforts were blocked by regulatory obstacles, attributable to private energy companies and their interests.

To avoid such problems in South Carolina, I chose to “address that threat from the bottom up” beginning in Rock Hill and York County. And we are now reaching an important moment of truth, about which I briefly shared with colleagues at the Palmetto Panel 2019 meeting in Clemson last Saturday. Click here my presentation.

I have refused offers for initiatives to seek support from either our SC state or federal legislators, although I have kept key legislators informed of our Lake Wylie efforts and progress. But I am an engineer and wanted first to understand the problems and then what it will take to harden the key infrastructure in York County, and particularly in Rock Hill, the fourth largest city in South Carolina.

We have now gone far enough in examining vulnerabilities of the York County Distribution Grid and estimating what it will cost to assure its viability when under a major EMP attack; and we are now prepared to take the next steps in seeking funding to achieve that viability for the citizens of Rock Hill and York County — at least insofar as the Distribution Grid is concerned.

As discussed in my January 15, 2019 message, Duke Energy is cooperating with our Lake Wylie efforts and conducting its own assessment and cost estimates for protecting its Generation and Transmission Gird. As I understand it, the Duke effort should have completed its assessment and cost estimates sometime in April 2019.

The electricity produced and provided by Duke then serves the citizens of Rock Hill and York County via infrastructure mostly owned and operated by the Rock Hill Utility Company and the York Electric Cooperative (co-op) Company. They and about 40 other Municipal Utility and co-op companies serve most of the citizens of South Carolina via “Distribution” Grid infrastructure that is connected to the “Generation” and “Transmission” portions of the grid — mostly provided by Duke Energy and now Dominion Energy.

While the descriptors “Transmission” and “Distribution” seem subtly different since they both are pathways for electricity, the substance of that distinction at many levels is very important.

As illustrated above, “Transmission” lines (in blue) carry very high voltage — nominally over 100 kilovolts (KV) — electricity over long distances that is then stepped down by Extra High Voltage (EHV) and High Voltage (HV) Transformers to lower voltage “Distribution” lines (in green) that deliver electricity to most customers — perhaps most notably to private citizens, but also to most commercial and other customers that provide essential support to our citizens. Hospitals, water-wastewater infrastructure, essential communications — especially to support emergency management operations, etc. are important examples of these essential functions.

When we began our Lake Wylie Pilot Study, the engineers responsible for the Rock Hill Utility and York County Electric companies had not identified with the Duke engineers where their most important connections to Duke’s Transmission Grid should be located to meet citizens needs under a major stressed condition like an EMP attack.

So, while Duke was committed to do all it could to assure its grid (all components) is protected, there was little assurance that the Rock Hill/York County Distribution Grid would likewise be protected — and that fact notably left at risk such critical infrastructure as supports a major Rock Hill hospital and water-wastewater infrastructure essential to many York County citizens.

In my opinion, water is next importance to electricity itself — e.g., without water, hospital patients can be expected to begin dying within hours after the loss of water.

That disconnect has been corrected to assure the York County Distribution Grid is included in the “grid island” surrounding the Duke generation plants that is essential to their viable operation — while providing electricity to the Rock Hill and York County Electric co-op Distribution Grid that serves the citizens of York County.

I have, as yet, no idea of the state of the viability of the Generation/Transmission/Distribution connections among the rest of the 40 utility and co-op companies in South Carolina and their respective Generation/Transmission components of the Grid — e.g., note that Dominion Energy is now becoming the second major Generation/Transmission source of electricity in South Carolina. That assessment can follow from the approach and lessons-learned from our Lake Wylie Pilot Study.

There no doubt also should be similar concerns for assuring the needed connectivity of over 3000 utility/co-op companies with their respective Generation/Transmission companies around the nation.

Serious grid disaggregation is only one of the results of the dysfunctional nature of the Federal Government in addressing the existential threat to the electric grid. And it is a reason why President Trump should end the fact that no-one below him is today responsible for assuring the entire electric grid is managed to assure all U.S. citizens are protected from existential threats — subject for another day, that hopefully will soon be clarified by President Trump in a pending Executive Order.

This distinction between the Transmission and Distribution portions of the grid is complicated by the separate Federal and State regulatory responsibilities. The Federal Energy Regulatory Commission (FERC) deals only with the “bulk power grid,” defined to consist only of the Generation and Transmission components. Distribution infrastructure is regulated at the state level. And as best I can tell, all of this complex structure is managed mostly by a variety of committees — from the local to the federal level. No one is in charge of assuring the system functions under major stress, such as could be the consequence of an EMP attack — or a major solar storm.

As someone has said, and as is especially true in the case of protecting against EMP, “The Devil is in the details!”

Moreover, the Nuclear Regulatory Commission (NRC) has primary oversight over the Nuclear Power Plants, which are a top priority Power Generation concern, as I have emphasized from the beginning of our High Frontier studies. In the event of a major grid blackout, the NRC requires that that the reactors be shut down following a blackout — and for safety’s sake in that state, the cooling water must be kept flowing or a Fukushima condition might occur, releasing radiation that the winds could carry throughout the United States.

This reality was one of the reasons for initiating the Lake Wylie Pilot Study, since Duke Energy operates both the Catawba nuclear power plant and the Wylie hydroelectric power plant, which is among the most resilient of power plants as a class. Note half of South Carolina’s electricity and about a third of North Carolina’s electricity comes from nuclear power plants — so, getting this matter right is very important to both states.

Furthermore, about 20-percent of the nation’s electricity comes from nuclear power plants, most of which are in the eastern interconnection of the overall power grid that produces most of the nation’s electricity and extends westward to include portions of New Mexico. Click here for a description of the nation’s interconnections.

In my judgment, assuring a viable Distribution Grid should also be assigned a high priority, because of the complexity of assuring a complex integrated effort needed to harden our national grid, given the likely variety across our fifty states and the associated variation among reportedly 3500 or so municipal utility and co-op companies across the nation, responsible for providing electricity to the private sector— hospitals, water-wastewater, other utilities, businesses, people, industry, transportation, etc. Imagine life without electricity!

And this is how our military bases get their electricity as well, though the Department of Defense has no responsibility for assuring the viability of critical civil infrastructure such as the nation’s grid. And thus far, no one in Washington seems to be taking this problem seriously.

This reality was most clearly demonstrated in a February 27, 2019 roundtable on Capitol Hill, chaired by Senator Ron Johnson (R-WI) — Chairman of the Senate Homeland Security Committee. Click here for the two hours that is well worth your time, just to see his open frustration with the lethargy of the Federal Government, with which I most assuredly concur.

This lethargy even more convinces me that we should emphasize working the problem from the bottom-up, where the complexities can most directly be understood and dealt with — provided the local engineers know what to do. And that is another feature of our Lake Wylie Pilot Study that is so far as I know unique among other worthy activities around the nation intended to protect the grid.

I am most concerned about the reality that very few technical authorities know very much about the EMP threat or how to deal with it — in spite of the fact that we first learned of the threat almost 60 years ago. And within another 15 years, the Department of Defense — most specifically the Defense Nuclear Agency (DNA) and the Air Force Weapons Laboratory (AFWL) — learned how to harden our strategic systems and their associated command, control and communications systems to EMP effects.

Regrettably, DNA and AFWL ended a quarter century ago with the end of our nuclear testing and the “alleged” end of the Cold War. Over time DNA morphed into what is now the Defense Threat Reduction Agency (DTRA) — without maintaining staff with continuity to the previous technical competence in dealing with the EMP threat.

And to my knowledge there is also no longer a serious AFWL capability by any name in the USAF or any other service.

Therefore, the Department of Energy (DOE) laboratories, which never took seriously studies or testing of EMP (or other nuclear weapons) effects during the Cold War (their focus was on building nuclear weapons, not nuclear weapons effects) are seeking funds and programs to “reinvent the wheel” that was mastered by DoD a half century ago. And their slow pace is frustrating to watch.

Thus, I was pleased that Dr. George Baker joined with me in planning and conducting the Lake Wylie Pilot Study. George is a bone fide EMP expert, who once led the DNA research and development programs dealing with EMP and still is involved in assessing our military systems.

Perhaps most important, George led the efforts that formulated the Military Standards that were (and are) used in designing and evaluating viable strategic systems — as well as assuring assessed defects are restored effectively.

As I discussed in my January 15, 2019 message, the presidents of the Rock Hill Utility and York County Electric Company opened their Distribution Grid infrastructure for George’s assessment and costing exercise. Consequently, we now have a very credible cost estimate to assure the viability of key infrastructure supporting the hospital, water-wastewater, emergency management, etc. — and that credible knowledge will be helpful in seeking funding to protect key Distribution Grid infrastructure that is currently deficient.

I should note that George has observed that previously the most complex military complex he had assessed was Andersen AFB in Guam, but the York County Distribution Grid and associated Emergency Management functions (including with the state capitol, Columbia) made his Andersen effort look simple by comparison.

I want to emphasize that neither George nor I have taken money for conducting this service in my home state — and in supporting many related activities in other states that I hope will follow our example.

We are at a pivot point, in seeking support for implementing the hardening of the Rock Hill/York County Distribution Grid and exporting the lessons-learned throughout South and North Carolina — and to other states. More for another day.

But I want to emphasize that we may not have time for others to reinvent the wheel before we are tested by one of several potential threats. That we have no time to lose is illustrated by Stephen Blank’s excellent February 20, 2019 article in The Hill, “Why Russia Covets Hypersonic Weapons,” which includes the following observation:

” . . . in the recent Vostok-2018 exercises Russian forces and the Ministry of Energy conducted large-scale exercises to restore electric grids and power supply after an attack. In other words, Russia rehearsed an EMP (electromagnetic pulse) operation, and its aftermath strongly suggesting that it either expects or intends to launch . . . “ (Emphasis added)

Click here for Stephen’s full article. And bear in mind that the EMP Commission reported long ago that EMP is included in the military doctrine of Russia, China, North Korea and Iran.

And still we procrastinate? We don’t have time to reinvent the wheel!

Bottom Lines.

The Lake Wylie Pilot Study has reached a pivot point in demonstrating how to accomplish a viable assessment and make valid associated costs to assure “from the bottom-up” a viable Distribution Gird to deliver electric power to the citizens of Rock Hill and York County.

Moreover, this cost is clearly affordable. Now the question is how should/will it be paid? So, we will be considering the possibilities going forward.

Next, we also hope to help others extend the lessons learned throughout South and North Carolina, and ultimately to the rest of the nation.

Our Lake Wylie Pilot Study approach can compose an appropriate model to be included in the response to President Trump’s anticipated Executive Order directing the executive branch “powers that be” to protect the nation’s electric power grid.

And please, Mr. President, please put someone in the White House in charge!

What can you do?

Join us in praying for our nation, and for a rebirth of the freedom sought, achieved and passed to us by those who came before us.

Help us to spread our message to the grass roots and to encourage all “powers that be” to provide for the common defense as they are sworn to do.

Begin by passing this message to your friends and suggest they visit our webpage www.highfrontier.org, for more information. Also, please encourage your sphere of influence to sign up for our weekly e-newsletter.

Encourage them to review our past email messages, posted on www.highfrontier.org, to learn about many details related to the existential manmade and natural EMP threats and how we can protect America against them. I hope you will help us with our urgently needed efforts, which I will be discussing in future messages.

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