January 27, 2015—Did We See This Show Before?

“The [new] missile and the launch pad indicate that Iran’s ballistic missile program, which is an integral part of its nuclear weapons program, is moving forward at full throttle. The expanded range of Iran’s ballistic missile program as indicated by the satellite imagery makes clear that its nuclear weapons program is not merely a threat to Israel, or to Israel and Europe. It is a direct threat to the United States as well.“ ~ Caroline Glick, The Jerusalem Post, January 22, 2015

Caroline Glick leveraged off the ongoing debate about Speaker John Boehner inviting Israeli Prime Minister Netanyahu to address a Joint Session of Congress to title her January 22^nd Jerusalem Post article “Column One: Iran, Obama, Boehner, and Netanyahu.” An important message, ignored by most U.S. media, was Israel’s Eros-B satellite imagery, shown on television the preceding night, of a recently constructed missile launch site just outside Tehran, capable of sending a rocket into space or of firing an intercontinental-range ballistic missile (ICBM).

Megan Kelly did take note of this important event on Fox News—among other troubling events contrary to President Obama’s State of the Union speech indicating that “the shadow of crisis has passed.” Hear, hear!

Most of the media is focused on whether it would be helpful to the ongoing negotiations if additional sanctions were threatened unless there is an agreement by the end of June. Many on both sides of the aisle in congress advocate such sanctions, which I believe help the negotiators who have kicked the can twice without agreement. The President has indicated he would veto such a congressional mandate. I’ll resist the temptation to elaborate why I agree with the majority in Congress, and stick with the latest information on the growing Iranian ICBM treat.

First, note that for almost a decade some intelligence officials have predicted Iran would have an ICBM by 2015—contrary to official estimates of the Director of National Intelligence. High Frontier’s messages dating from early 2013 have discussed Iran’s steady progression, including their launch of a 4400 pound payload into space carrying a monkey—more than enough capability for several nuclear weapons when Iran gets them. Iran also has launched satellites that passed over the South Polar regions posing a threat to the U.S. from our unprotected south. Click here to reread my April 24, 2013 message.

Of greater interest given the recent announcement of a new Iranian ICBM and satellite launch site near Tehran was that the Congressional Research Service described in December 2012 what was then a new launch site at the entrance of the Persian Gulf, which Iran’s Defense Minister Vahdi indicated in June 2012 was about 80% complete. This site provides possible failed launches to occur over wide swaths of the ocean rather than land, as shown in the right panel of the chart below. This would give Iran a broad span of possible launch vectors to send a satellite southward, as compared to those launched from sites closer to Tehran, such as the site recently announced in the left panel.

Of course, if the Iranians decide to launch a satellite to the south to attack, in its first orbit, the United States with a high altitude electromagnetic pulse (HEMP), they will not be concerned about flying over land vs. water. The greater consequence of launching the attack from near Tehran is that Aegis BMD ships could not get close enough to the launch site to intercept the satellite launch vehicle in its boost phase.

If their crews are prepared, Aegis BMD ships may still be able to intercept the satellites above the earth’s atmosphere in outer space. The first generation Standard Missile-3 interceptor was used to shoot down a satellite in 2008. In any case, these ships can provide cuing information to enable the ground based interceptors at Vandenberg AFB, CA to shoot down those satellites before they can detonate their nuclear weapon—again, provided they prepare to do so.

As we have discussed before, we need a diplomatic initiative to inspect satellite payloads before they are launched or else to authorize a timely interceptor launch to shoot down uninspected satellites before they reach U.S. territory. Such inspections can be effectively accomplished with the means used to verify the START and INF treaties between the United States and the Soviet Union/Russia.

The importance of the new ICBM/satellite launch site is that Iran is continuing its steady march to develop a serious capability to launch nuclear attacks not only on the Little Satan Israel, but also the Great Satan America. Nevertheless, I concur with Caroline Glick’s decision to spend most of her article discussing the political situation in which the U.S. Congress is paying more attention to our Israeli allies than is President Obama and his administration. The plot thickens.

And much of what was summarized in High Frontier’s April 22,2013 message still is current—i.e.,

Iranian leaders have repeadly declared their intentions to destroy the Little and Great Satans;
Iranians and North Koreans have long worked together on nuclear weapons and ballistic missile technology, fed by a cacophony of proliferation of key technology and engineering knowhow from Russia, China and others;
Iran and North Korea have both launched satellites into low earth orbit—capable of carrying light payloads over all the nations on earth;
Thus, they both could, once they obtain a light-weight nuclear weapon, detonate it over any nation they choose—including the United States.
If an appropriately designed device is dotonated at about 300 miles altitude over Omaha, the resulting electromagnetic pulse (EMP) could lead to the death of a couple hundred million Americans over the following year;
These EMP effects are well known to North Korea, Iran and most everyone else—and have been emphasized in 2006 and 2008 reports from the Congressionally mandated non-partisan EMP Commission composed of knowledgeable scientists and engineers;
Their only remaining challenge is getting such a weapon, and North Korea has claimed to have a “miniaturized” nuclear weapon;
The Defense Intelligence Agency (DIA) recently judged with moderate confidence that this is so—but the Director of National Intelligence (DNI) testified DIA did not represent the consensus of the 15-members of the Intelligence Community, noting that since they have not yet tested such a capability, “neither we nor the North Koreans know they have such capability;”
But 70 years ago the U.S. employed the world’s first atomic bomb on Hiroshima without testing it and the second (of a different design) on Nagasaki immediately after a single test—the DNI’s argument seems a bit weak;
Prudence demands that we prepare to counter such a threat ASAP;
Buying additional ground based interceptors (GBIs) for Alaska and considering an East Coast GBI site will improve our defense against ballistic missiles that attack us from over the North Pole, but little to defend against an attack over the South Pole—it’s like locking the front door and leaving the back door open.
To close the back door, we need to improve our existing missile defenses as quickly as possible. Aegis improvements could be accomplished quickly—to provide ascent phase intercept opportunities early after North Korea (or Iran) launches a rocket headed south toward the South Pole to attack the U.S. from the south, and to provide advance tracking information to our GBIs in California so they can intercept the orbiting satellite before it overflies the U.S.
The Aegis system’s Standard Missile velocity should be increased so that it can intercept missiles and satellites at higher altitudes and defend larger areas.

This list still is a valid assessment of our situation. A year later, High Frontier’s April 17, 2014 message further elaborated how we should be countering the Iranian threat. Still, U.S. authorities have accomplished little if anything to deal with this existential threat. We must do better!

The dangers to all we hold dear may be manifest in individual terrorist events—or, unless we prepare better than we have so far, they may soon involve existential threats such as those identified in our past messages—and reiterated above.

In particular, a quick review of our past email messages, posted on www.highfrontier.org, will inform you of many details related to the existential manmade and natural EMP threats and how we can protect America against them. Yes, we also remain vulnerable to the EMP caused by a major solar storm that will one day surely create this threat condition—and we are not dealing with it either.

Help us make 2015 a successful year to remember! And may God bless America!

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