May 5, 2020—New Executive Order Mixed Bag

President Trump’s important May 1, 2020 Executive Order focuses almost entirely on the operation of the “Bulk Power Grid” which it defines to include “transmission lines rated at 69,000 volts (69 kV) or more, but does not include facilities used in the local distribution of electric energy.” Executive Order 13920, Securing the United States Bulk Power System

Click here for President Trump’s full May 1 Executive Order (EO), which most directly deals with the foreign economic and cyber threats to the electric power grid — and directs the Secretary of Energy over the next year to lead a whole of government effort to counter foreign adversaries that “are increasingly creating and exploiting vulnerabilities in the U.S. bulk-power system, which provides the electricity that supports our national defense, vital emergency services, critical infrastructure, economy, and way of life.”

President Trump’s EO also correctly explains that the threat is exacerbated by “those seeking to commit malicious acts against the United States and its people, including malicious cyber activities, because a successful attack on our bulk-power system would present significant risks to our economy, human health and safety, and would render the United States less capable of acting in defense of itself or its allies.”

I also agree that “the unrestricted acquisition or use in the United States of bulk-power system electric equipment designed, developed, manufactured, or supplied by persons owned by, controlled by, or subject to the jurisdiction or direction of foreign adversaries augments the ability of foreign adversaries to create and exploit vulnerabilities in bulk-power system electric equipment, with potentially catastrophic effects.” Moreover, “the unrestricted foreign supply of bulk-power system electric equipment constitutes an unusual and extraordinary threat to the national security, foreign policy, and economy of the United States,” “both in the case of individual acquisitions and when acquisitions are considered as a class.” And further that our marketplace openness “must be balanced with the need to protect our Nation against a critical national security threat,” requiring “additional steps to protect the security, integrity, and reliability” of the U.S. bulk-power system.

These conditions fully justify President Trump’s declaration of a “national emergency with respect to the threat to the United States bulk-power system.”

Thus, he has again demonstrated his clear commitment to protect the electric grid, as he promised in his campaign; included in his December 18, 2017 National Security Strategy and in his March 26, 2019 Executive Order; and on December 20, 2019 demonstrated when he signed the Fiscal Year 2020 National Defense Authorization Act — NDAA(2020), demonstrating congressional support for protecting the electric power grid against existential threats.

However, I have two major concerns about his May 1, 2020 Executive Order on Securing the United States Bulk Power System — which as summarized above deals positively to counter a truly urgent and important threat:

I worry that there was no mention of the existential threat posed by manmade or natural electromagnetic pulse (EMP), which I consider to be within the cyber warfare domain, if not the most severe cyber threat that could be imposed; and
I worry that the EO focus is almost entirely on a top-down directed (from Washington down but not quite to a local level) operation formulated almost entirely on the “Bulk Power Grid,” which according to the EO’s definition “includes transmission lines rated at 69,000 volts (69 kV) or more, but does not include facilities used in the local distribution of electric energy.”

As the Congressional EMP Commission made clear, EMP potentially poses the most catastrophic cyber-attack threat. High-altitude nuclear explosions can shut down the entire electric power grid indefinitely — which is why such an attack strategy is included in the military doctrine of Russia, China, North Korea and Iran. To leave out this major threat to the electric grid is, in my opinion, a serious omission that should be rectified — as the President can with the stroke of his pen.

Second, from my perspective, any viable process to protect the American people from the existential EMP threat must include a major portion of the grid that this EO appears to exclude. As noted in the figure below, the formerly defined Distribution Grid composes 90-prcent of the grid and about 70-percent of the cost of the combined Transmission and Distribution Lines.

Moreover, I am unclear and troubled by how the step-down transformers that get electricity to support the “local distribution of electricity” are to be dealt with in executing the EO as currently written. As noted above, the EO defines “Bulk Power Grid” to include “transmission lines rated at 69,000 volts (69 kV) or more, but does not include facilities used in the local distribution of electric energy.”

As illustrated in the above figure that I have used many times in briefings and previous messages, the critical line between the Bulk Power Grid and the Distribution Grid is the “substation step-down transformer” listed here as within the “green” Distribution Grid.

But if that transformer receives higher voltage electricity than 69 kV, is it included in the EO’s definition of the Bulk Power Grid? Is it within the province of the Federal or State “regulatory bodies” — or both? Will there be a bureaucratic fight on this question — among the inevitable set of issues to be prompted by this EO?

In our Lake Wylie Pilot Study, multiple such substation step-down transformers are owned and maintained by the municipal and co-op companies that provide electricity to essentially all Rock Hill/York County citizens and their supporting industry, businesses, hospitals, etc.

The cost estimates previously discussed included five such substations associated with suppling electricity to top priority infrastructure components of the Rock Hill/York County Distribution Grid — like the hospital, water-wastewater, communication, emergency management, etc. The input voltage on the five transformers is 115 Kv — so are they now part of the Bulk Power Grid?

If so, how does that new bureaucratic wrinkle work? In Rock Hill/York County, these transformers are not the property of, nor are they operated by, Duke Energy which provides electricity to them via Duke Energy Transmission lines. They belong to and have been operated by the Rock Hill Municipal and York Electric co-op as part of their Distribution Grid responsibilities. And how will the new associated regulatory responsibilities be pursued? Hmmmmmm . . .

BOTTOM LINE: FIXING THE BULK POWER GRID WITHOUT FIXING THE DISTRIBUTION GRID DOES NOT ASSURE ELECTRICITY GETS TO U.S. CITIZENS.

Furthermore, it appears to me that this EO presents ambiguities that can delay even more our efforts to demonstrate that we can affordably harden the Distribution Grid by employing the same methods used to protect our most important military systems (as already demonstrated by our Lake Wylie Pilot Study).

Misrepresentations of the real conditions on the ground need to be corrected ASAP. In South Carolina, 40 such municipal and co-op electric companies are responsible for the “local distribution grid” (precluded by the May 1, 2020 EO) in addition to three larger companies that own and operate the bulk power grid (and some distribution grid components) — Duke, Dominion and Santee-Cooper — serving the citizens of a complex “crazy quilt” of 46 counties. They must deal with the same problems as we have encountered in York County. And note that there are 3000-4000 such companies across the nation — I haven’t been able to get an authoritative count.

Based on our joint effort with our Duke Power partners, I believe we must address how best to protect the overall grid from the “bottom-up” — and the “step-down” transformers owned in our case by the Rock Hill Municipal and York Electric co-op companies — not Duke Energy (which owns and operates three power plants on Lake Wylie and their associated Transmission lines that link to its corporate headquarters in neighboring Charlotte).

The boundary seemingly defined by the EO definition leaves out the complex portion of the grid that actually supports essentially all Rock Hill/York County citizens. To the extent that “local distribution” portion of the grid is defined by the EO, it is listed as a problem area because cyber threats could originate from it to threaten the bulk-power grid.

So, President Trump’s May 1, 2020 Executive Order, if not amended, leaves out the citizens of York County — and could plausibly delay initiatives to address the EMP threat from the bottom-up, as has been our (especially most importantly Duke Energy and Rock Hill/York County engineers) objective for five years.

Moreover, I think our Lake Wylie Pilot Study experience is likely to be indicative of what to expect throughout South and North Carolina and the rest of the nation.

A pertinent example is that when we began our Lake Wylie Pilot Study, the key engineers at Duke Energy and the Rock Hill Municipal and York Electric co-op had not communicated with each on how to assure the Bulk Power and Distribution grid was to be integrated to assure that the hospital, water-waste water, communications, law enforcement, emergency management, etc. would receive electricity should there be a major grid blackout — whatever the source.

That condition has been fixed, though we have not received funding to actually harden either the bulk-power or distribution components of the grid that is needed to support the citizens of Rock Hill/York County.

Please click here and review again my last message that urged the Phase 4 response to the COVID-19 include funding for critical infrastructure with a component that addresses the electric power grid, specifically to exploit the Lake Wylie Pilot Study results. Our specific recommendation is supported by the South Carolina Adjutant General, Rock Hill/York County authorities and associated congressional representatives.

Needed is $30 million to validate cost estimates that about $100/citizen can provide initial hardening and about $10-per-year/citizen can provide a hardness assurance/maintenance program to assure the hardened “Distribution Grid” is maintained — and to plan extensions of those lessons-learned to other South and North Carolina counties and beyond. Beyond this $30 million is needed legislation and additional funds for South Carolina’s Adjutant General and associated state-wide National Guard operations — under oversight of Washington’s top National Guard authorities to extend this template even further.

Thus, the Lake Wylie Pilot Study in York County, SC has demonstrated that we can employ methods used for decades in protecting our most important military systems to protect our critical civil infrastructure — and for quite affordable cost. The only serious inhibitions are bureaucratic and the lack of funding to demonstrate this claim’s validity and to develop a viable plan to extend those lessons to other cities, counties and states.

The National Guard can and should play an important role in dealing with this threat — they are already involved in fighting COVID-19. Click here for an informative report that over 43,000 Guardsmen are already in the current fight. Phase 4 funding should enable the Guard to assure we are prepared for and can respond to existential threats to the national grid. Click here for previous messages that dealt with the Lake Wylie Pilot Study.

Note that without a viable Distribution Grid, our military operations would be sharply curtailed. The above figure highlights that the nation’s Distribution Grid composes over 90-percent of the national grid — and 70-percent of the cost of the Transmission and Distribution lines delivering electricity to the American people.

Click here for a recent briefing to a key Department of Homeland Security staff member with participation from all the key leaders of York County and our partner Duke Energy. It includes a detailed breakdown of the above cost estimate. For easy future reference, it is also included at the top of the right hand column of our webpage — at www.highfrontier.org .

It should be understood that many “jobs” would be associated with activities needed to upgrade and protect the electric power grid — involving more electrical engineering than civil engineering, which underpinned the CCC activities of the 1930s.

For example, we should be building the industrial base for producing and protecting the Extra High Voltage (EHV) Transformers that are essential to our grid operations — and are not built in the United States. They require months to hand-produce in Germany and South Korea for thousands of distinctive substations throughout the nation — after being shipped from abroad. American ingenuity can and should do better — and bringing this capability home fits with President Trump’s May 1 Executive Order!

Moreover, we have never even tested any of these critical components of the electric grid upon which our survival literally depends. One that Duke Energy (our partner in the Lake Wylie Pilot Study) gave for testing has been sitting idle (and deteriorating) for well over a year in North Charleston, SC — awaiting funds to ship this enormous, locomotive-size transformer, up the Savannah River for testing at the Savannah River National Laboratory, for the lack of less than a million dollars.

If the Department of Energy is to lead the effort to execute President Trump’s May 1, 2020 Executive Order, its representatives should rectify this failure of its past stewardship — and assure sufficient funds for comprehensive testing and to support additional testing as a national effort to better evaluate and improve all key components of the electric power grid.

Other concerns are associated with assuring the viability of the community of critical operators/operations that essential to the viability of the grid. Numerous small companies could undoubtedly be employed in protecting and sustaining the complex grid that consists of 3000-4000 municipal and cooperative electric companies that own, maintain and manage grid operations. It is a top priority engineering and management problem. The figure below illustrates the magnitude of such an effort, just in South and North Carolina.

Click here for my May 4, 2017 testimony before the Senate Energy and National Resources Committee recommending the bottom-up approach that I am now even more convinced is essential if we ever want to correct this existential threat to all we hold dear. At the conclusion of that important hearing, Chairlady Lisa Murkowski appeared to agree when she stated:

“I appreciate the urging that we not let our guard down … recognizing that this [threat] is complicated and multifaceted … truly daunting … and that we need to start out locally … It is important that we in congress be reminded of the urgency and imperative of our task and I think we were given that message this morning.” (Emphasis added)

As I discussed last week, we are prepared to validate our Lake Wylie Pilot Study results and begin to employ those lessons-learned throughout South Carolina and beyond. The National Guard can and should be the focus of that “bottom-up” planning and operations, by employing and extending as appropriate its already existing authorities and responsibilities — especially as included in the mission of the national Civil Support Team (CST) operations. Every State has at least one CST (New York, California and Florida have two CSTs), that is funded by the Federal Government and operate under direction of the Nation’s 50 Governors.

The thus funded York County “bottom-up” plan should include developing and extending a more general plan to protect effective operations of the grid under all hazards, and especially from a second and even a third wave of COVID-19 before a vaccine is ready. Objectives would include to:

Protect nuclear power plants and especially their spent fuel pools by ensuring that the nuclear reactors remain safe in a blackout, and can be restarted to provide power, even if the electric power grid fails.
Protect critical parts of the electric grid to assure the viability of top priority infrastructure, including vital water-wastewater operations and essential emergency management communications.
Tie via the National Guard to other pilot studies such as in San Antonio, Texas, including military bases and key community operations — in concert with national and state regulatory authorities and in conjunction with major energy companies like Duke Energy, a key Lake Wylie Pilot Study partner from the beginning.

Bottom Lines.

President Trump’s May 1, 2020 Executive Order includes many important initiatives, and meeting them effectively will be challenging. But by not considering how to protect the Distribution Grid, it will not address, let alone achieve, the needed conditions to assure electricity for the American people. The president should rectify that shortcoming ASAP. It only takes another stroke of his pen.

I worry that unless the White House leads in this way, an unwelcome result of the President’s Executive Order will be more delay in addressing the vulnerabilities of the electric power grid. In that regard, I’ll again quote Senator Ron Johnson (R-WI), chairman of the Senate Homeland Security and Governmental Affairs Committee, who closed his important February 17, 2019 hearing by observing:

“We have known about the existential threat posed by electromagnetic pulses (EMP) and geomagnetic disturbances (GMD) for decades. Because most people are either unaware of the danger, or view these as very low probability events, there has not been sufficient public pressure to take effective action to mitigate these threats. Instead, we establish commissions and study panels, conduct research, and develop plans to develop strategies. It is way past time to stop admiring this problem, and actually begin to do something concrete to protect our vulnerable electrical grid, control systems, and the ever-increasing array of electronic devices our society has become dependent upon.”

President Trump should assure that his May 1, 2020 Executive Order does not just lead to one more year-long study. Hopefully, the “powers that be” will much sooner find ways to support our Lake Wylie Pilot Study to provide the “concrete” plan that Senator Johnson urged us to pursue to actually protect the grid.

What can you do?

Join us in praying for our nation, and for a rebirth of the freedom sought, achieved and passed to us by those who came before us.

Help us to spread our message to the grass roots and to encourage all “powers that be” to provide for the common defense as they are sworn to do.

Begin by passing this message to your friends and suggest they visit our webpage www.highfrontier.org, for more information. Also, please encourage your sphere of influence to sign up for our weekly e-newsletter.

Encourage them to review our past email messages, posted on www.highfrontier.org, to learn about many details related to the existential manmade and natural EMP threats and how we can protect America against them. I hope you will help us with our urgently needed efforts, which I will be discussing in future messages.

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