Swans were believed to be white until Dutch explorer Willem de Vlamingh’s 1697 discovery of black swans in Australia, which profoundly changed zoology. It then seemed obvious that “black swans” had to exist because other animals also had varying colors. a “Black Swan” event is an unexpected event, after which experts and even laymen usually conclude: “it was bound to happen . . . similar incidences even have happened before.” Read Full Story
In seeking to protect Israel from an existential Iranian threat, Prime Minister Netanyahu confronts problematic facts and key uncertainties. It will be interesting to hear how he deals with them in today’s address to Congress and all Americans—who also face an existential threat from Iran, whether they know it or not. Read Full Story
Major solar storms will one day inject a massive cloud of electric particles into the earth’s geomagnetic field, producing a major electromagnetic pulse (EMP) that causes catastrophic permanent damage to the electric power grid, unless it is hardened. Our “just-in-time” economy would halt indefinitely, and without necessities dependent on electricity, several hundred million Americans would die within a year. Time to pay attention to such “stormy weather,” don’t you think? Read Full Story
The Japanese surprise attack on Pearl Harbor 72 years ago was a classic “Black Swan” event in that it was unexpected but should have been, as concluded after the fact. A fair question is whether we are courting another “surprise” attack that should be identified now and countered while there is still time to prevent or defend against it? Read Full Story
We will be adding key policy briefs as we progress.