Beware the ‘Black Swan’  – guest column in Maine’s The Times Record today.

Beware the ‘Black Swan’ – guest column in Maine’s The Times Record today.

Cover - December 10, 2013A “black swan event” is an unexpected event, after which experts and even laymen usually conclude: “It was bound to happen.” The label originated when Dutch explorer Willem de Vlamingh’s 1697 discovered black swans in Australia, when most people elsewhere assumed all swans were white.

Consider a couple of examples, with obvious consequences for Maine.

Last week included the 72nd anniversary of the black swan event known as Pearl Harbor.

The “greatest generation” who lived through that event and World War II can testify from personal experience about the costs of ignoring the clear warning signs of that attack.

Years earlier, Billy Mitchell’s private and particularly public attempts to get American powers to understand the future importance of air power led to his 1925 court marshal, at which he warned of the coming war with Japan and of the Pearl Harbor “surprise” attack.

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